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 Verfasst am: 15. Nov 2023 03:46 Titel: Five must-read fantasy football stats for Week 9 |
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Five must-read fantasy football stats for Week 9 Published: Nov 04, 2016 at 12:22 PM NFL Network Analytics Expert 1) Projections Thanks for sending in awesome questions this week to add to my column. The most asked question was about the ' offense ( Doug Gilmour Kids Jersey see No. 2), followed by the at (see No. 3), then at (see No. 4). Great questions, thank you and keep them coming! Note: These projections are based on my stat-line projection for each player translated into standard fantasy scoring. The median values are represented in the (parantheses). Tip: Use the order and points as a way to compare ... e.g. if a running back is projected to earn 1.5 points more than the guy behind him, but only 0.15 points le s than the guy in front of him, take the magnitude into consideration. Also, asterisks (*) mean watch out for injury report changes, but always do that anyway, even if there doesn't happen to be an asterisk. Quarterbacks: , (20.2) , (19.5) , (18.0) , (17.1) , (16.6) , (16.5)* , (15.5) , (15.3) , (15.1) , (15.1) Running Backs: , (19.1) , (16.3) , (14.2)* , (14.0) , (13.4) , (13.0)* , (11.5) , (11.2) , (10.9) , (10. Wide Receivers: , (14.0) , (13. Jr., (12.0) , (11.7) , (11.1) , (11.0) , (10. , (10.5) , (10.5) , (10.5) Tight Ends: , (8.92) , (7.99) , (7.51) , (7.34) , (7. Nate Prosser Kids Jersey 30) Kickers , (9.46) , (9.44) , (9.1 , (8.50) D/STs (11.16) (9.92) (8.54) (8.26) (7.65) 2) The ' offensive line has allowed the fewest sacks (nine) and QB hits (17) in the NFL. The defense has recorded the most QB hits (75) and is tied for the most sacks (26) and takeaways (16) so far this season. They have also not allowed a QB to pa s for 300 yards in a game since last year. In fact, accumulated the most yards against them so far this season, and that total was 267. It follows that the No Fly Zone hasn't allowed a 100-yard receiving game to any wide receiver so far this season ( , a running back, had 132 receiving yards against them). and , together, lead all wide receiver duos in targets (155), receptions (99) and receiving yards (1,356). The average the sixth-most points per game (26.9) and the fifth-most total yards per game (401.6). The give up the sixth-fewest points per game (17) and allow the third-fewest yards per game (301.3). This is important too: Oakland's defense is ranked 22nd in points against (25.4 ppg) and allows the second-most yards per game (410.4). Denver has the 13th-ranked scoring offense (24.3 ppg) off of the sixth-fewest yards per game (326.4). Impact: It looks as though will not play again this week, and the could be down one more cornerback as also appeared on the latest injury report. On the other side of the ball, looks like he will play despite his appearance on the injury report earlier this week. Let's look at points per game earned and given up by each team to create an approximation of a final score just to frame the po sible game stats that would generate that score. Take the ' 26.9 points scored per game average. Here are the teams they hung up Ivan Barbashev Kids Jersey more points than their average against: NO, ATL, BAL, SD, JAX, TB. The teams who brought down their scoring average: TEN and KC. The only scored 17 and 10 points respectively against them. The Broncos' 17 points per game allowed average breaks down with CAR, IND, ATL, SD (twice) all coming in over the average, with CIN, TB, and HOU under the average. Then do the same thing for the DEN offense at 24.3 points. Games that were over: IND, CIN, TB, HOU, SD (the first time) and under: CAR, ATL, SD (the second time). Finally, let's measure Oakland's defense using the measuring stick of 25.4 points allowed. Teams that surpa sed that mark include NO, ATL, BAL, SD, KC, while those that fell short were TEN, JAX, TB. There is a lot more that goes into my model, but does that framework help at all? Fast-forward through the simulations and I have Oakland in a home win and 24 points over Denver's projected 21 points. To me, Carr and his healthy receivers project to have average to below average fantasy days. I have Carr with 15.7 projected points putting him outside the top 10 quarterbacks. Cooper has 10.8 projected points and Crabtree with 9.1. They all have lower than their normal floors 3) has one or more pa sing touchdowns in 34 of his past 35 games, with one-plus score in 16 straight games. That run is tied for the longest active streak in the league ... with . This is a really great game to think about, as it is potentially the highest-scoring affair of the weekend. To level set, the Green Bay offense ranks 11th in scoring, 19th rushing, and 22nd pa sing, while the Indianapolis defense ranks 28th in scoring, 21st versus the rush, and 31st against the pa s. On the flip side, the ' offense sits at ninth in scoring, 22nd in rushing and 12th in pa sing going against a defense that ranks 15th in scoring, second against the rush and 16th versus the pa s. Both quarterbacks, , and are above-average starts based on my projections. is just below that list with 9 projected points. Watch 's injury status closely. P.S. has already been ruled out. Lastly, I know seems like a "sit" against this defense, but I like him to score more than 10 fantasy points. Why? He's averaged 66.5 yards per game on the ground and almost three receptions per game for 14.8 yards through the air. He's also played slightly better on the road this year. 4) Double-whammy! I had more stats than space to write them up, so here's a two-for-one package: We all know is set to return. Ben's stats upon return from injury (seven starts) are about 210 pa sing yards per game (he typically averages around 280) and a nine-to-10 TD-to-INT ratio. Something that may have flown under some radars with his injury return is the potential for tight end to also suit up. Green used to back up in San Diego. He's a natural pa s-catcher, stands at 6-foot-6 and weighs 240 pounds. It's not the safest fantasy play because the are right at the top of the league against TEs, but keep an eye on Pierre Turgeon Kids Jersey this one, especially for future weeks. With and Mo Claiborne not playing for the this week it's hard to make sense of what's going to happen with now that is back and is the starting quarterback. Ke sler's first 133 pa ses have yielded a 66.9 completion percentage (89 caught) for an average of 7.12 yards (20th in the league). Per my math, the change that happened when was switched to Ke sler more so capped the upside of players rather than increasing the downside. I have Pryor projected at four-to-five receptions for about 60 yards, while Coleman is between three-to-four receptions for just under 40 yards. 5) Three If/Thens: Injuries 's AC joint injury makes it seem like he's a true game-time decision. The committee of , , and would likely fill this big void. To me, this is risky, despite a good matchup with the . Sometimes risk is good, like in Perfect Challenge, but I might make a contingency plan for this one as it's the 4:05 ET game so plan ahead. has been listed as questionable Scottie Upshall Jersey and has been limited in practice all week. has already been ruled out as well. With under center against the Jags, it's logical that and become value super stars on your team. If Maclin is ruled out Hill gets a bump. West is already a top-notch pick. Sr. is listed as questionable for this week's meeting with the defense who has given up the seventh-most pa sing yards per game this season. It appears would fill his role. This would be a risky fantasy pick as his production this year hasn't matched what he was able to do last year. This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue. Click here Click here Click here |
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